State of Agritech - 18th January 2024

Can you imagine Bollywood actors cavorting in the snowless mountains of Gulmarg, once famous for its skiing resorts and passionate songs of romance? Trust me. It’s not pretty. Original Image Credits: Faisal Bashir/Alamy

In Today’s Edition:

1/ Agritech Crystal Balling- 2023 Retrospective and 2024 Predictions

Reconciling 2023 agritech predictions and crystalballing 2024 for India, Asia, Latam, Africa, Middle East, and Europe markets.

2/ Making Sense of Helm Ag <Plantix>

Making Sense of Plantix’s Acquisition by Helm Ag.

3/ Can Zoho Transform Indian Agritech?

Rumors of Zoho entering the Indian Agritech ecosystem may not be greatly exaggerated.

1/ Agritech Crystal Balling- 2023 Retrospective and 2024 Predictions

I’ve often wondered why industry pundits and promoters of new technologies indulge in the prediction business. Staying true to my agritech analyst stripes, I too have indulged, if not for dopamine kicks, but to train my eyes and practice the difficult art of seeing the long horizon without an iota of judgment.

But never really found out why we all do this prediction business in the first place.

Until recently when I accidentally stumbled upon a book of economics by Donald Mackenzie called “An Engine Not a Camera”. The premise of the book is tantalizingly simple until you ponder over its implications.

Economics theories trick us into thinking that they are cameras that describe economic behaviors when the reality is that they are engines that produce them through policies and institutions.

Venture capital firms are not in the business of churning out economics theories for now. However, they do churn out a lot of content. Ever since

Sajith Pai

set the bar with the "Indus Valley Report” in India, every venture capital firm worth its salt produces tons of content, predictive, prescriptive, and otherwise.

In doing what they are doing, what are they really doing?

Take this 2030 vision of Indian Agriculture from Omnivore: “Fragmented landholdings and asset ownership will go through widespread consolidation, real, and virtual, to achieve economies of scale for smallholders”

Are these trends serving as a camera that is describing an emergent reality or are these serving as an engine that is producing this emergent reality?

With that prologue in place, let’s get to business. In December 2022, I made a few predictions: